Authors: Dr.L.Johncy
Abstract: India's rapid economic growth has been accompanied by a substantial increase in energy demand and dependence on imported crude oil. This dependence exposes the Indian economy to international oil-price volatility arising from geopolitical conflicts, supply disruptions and global economic crises. At the same time, continued dependence on fossil fuels creates challenges for India's climate commitments and long-term energy transition. This study empirically examines the relationship between geopolitical oil shocks, energy security and climate change in India. The analysis focuses on the transmission of international crude oil-price shocks to India's oil import dependence, energy consumption, economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions. Annual data covering the period 1990–2024 are proposed to be analysed using descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, unit-root tests, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds-testing approach and an Error Correction Model (ECM). Structural-break analysis is incorporated to capture major episodes such as the 1991 Gulf War, the 2008 global financial crisis, the 2014–2016 oil-price collapse, the COVID-19 shock and the Russia–Ukraine conflict. The study conceptualises energy security through import dependence, oil-price volatility and energy diversification, while climate change is represented through CO₂ emissions and carbon intensity. The empirical framework is designed to identify both short-run and long-run relationships between geopolitical oil shocks, energy security and environmental outcomes. The study is expected to demonstrate that India's high dependence on imported oil increases vulnerability to external shocks, while diversification toward renewable energy, electric mobility, biofuels, energy efficiency and strategic petroleum reserves can simultaneously strengthen energy security and support climate objectives.
DOI: http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22304353
